One this page:
1. Balancing Economy, Society and Environmental concerns: sustainable development within a 'safe and just' framework
2. Human-environment interactions: Iceland
3. Human-environment interactions: African Drylands
1. Balancing Economy, Society and Environmental concerns: sustainable development within a 'safe and just' framework
2. Human-environment interactions: Iceland
3. Human-environment interactions: African Drylands
1. Balancing Economy, Society and Environmental concerns: sustainable development within a 'safe and just' framework
One of the greatest challenges of the 21st century is how the world's poorest countries can develop in a way that is environmentally sustainable and also socially 'just'. This work applies the "planetary boundaries” concept, with the addition of social well-being indicators, to create a framework for “safe and just” inclusive sustainable development, integrating environmental and social-development issues. The chief aim of this framework is to influence public policy, which happens principally at the national level, and we use South Africa as the case study.
This work forms the basis of the DPhil project (University of Oxford) of Ms. Megan Cole, supervised by myself and Prof. Mark New (University of Capetown, Pro Vice-Chancellor and director of the African Climate and Development Initiative (ACDI).
The first result of this project has been to produce a ‘barometer’ which presents the state and trajectory of key indicators, highlighting South Africa's proximity to safe environmental limits and progress on the eradication of social deprivation. This acts as both a monitoring and communication tool for national government, and highlights priorities for information gathering in other data-poor contexts. The barometer shows that achieving inclusive sustainable development in South Africa requires national and global action on multiple fronts, and careful consideration of the interplay between different environmental domains and development strategies.
This work forms the basis of the DPhil project (University of Oxford) of Ms. Megan Cole, supervised by myself and Prof. Mark New (University of Capetown, Pro Vice-Chancellor and director of the African Climate and Development Initiative (ACDI).
The first result of this project has been to produce a ‘barometer’ which presents the state and trajectory of key indicators, highlighting South Africa's proximity to safe environmental limits and progress on the eradication of social deprivation. This acts as both a monitoring and communication tool for national government, and highlights priorities for information gathering in other data-poor contexts. The barometer shows that achieving inclusive sustainable development in South Africa requires national and global action on multiple fronts, and careful consideration of the interplay between different environmental domains and development strategies.
The paper is available on the Early Edition section of the PNAS website.
Link to Early view: http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/10/07/1400985111.abstract
Full reference: Tracking sustainable development with a national barometer for South Africa using a downscaled “safe and just space” framework. Megan J. Cole, Richard M. Bailey, and Mark G. New. PNAS 2014 ; published ahead of print October 7, 2014, doi:10.1073/pnas.1400985111
Link to Early view: http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/10/07/1400985111.abstract
Full reference: Tracking sustainable development with a national barometer for South Africa using a downscaled “safe and just space” framework. Megan J. Cole, Richard M. Bailey, and Mark G. New. PNAS 2014 ; published ahead of print October 7, 2014, doi:10.1073/pnas.1400985111
2. Human-environment interactions: Iceland
Background
The degree of resilience of landscapes to climate instability and human pressure is an open question in may contexts. Iceland provides a unique opportunity to study human-climate-landscape interactions and the conditions under which regime shifts (transitions between different landscape states) may occur. This is due in part to the exquisitely well-dated sedimentary sequence of the last ~8,000 yrs, and the highly detailed historical records of human activity. In many locations throughout Iceland, there is strong evidence that a critical transition has occurred in the behaviour of the landscape - a transition from a more resilient, geomorphologically stable condition, to a less resilient 'runaway erosion' condition. A major focus of this project is to understand the combination of conditions/events/pressures that led to this transition.
Images below show (left to right): an area of non-eroded vegetation-covered soil surrounded by an area stripped of soil be erosion; an active erosion front eating in to the body of soil; an example of preserved tephra (volcanic ash) layers [photos courtesy of Andy Dugmore].
The degree of resilience of landscapes to climate instability and human pressure is an open question in may contexts. Iceland provides a unique opportunity to study human-climate-landscape interactions and the conditions under which regime shifts (transitions between different landscape states) may occur. This is due in part to the exquisitely well-dated sedimentary sequence of the last ~8,000 yrs, and the highly detailed historical records of human activity. In many locations throughout Iceland, there is strong evidence that a critical transition has occurred in the behaviour of the landscape - a transition from a more resilient, geomorphologically stable condition, to a less resilient 'runaway erosion' condition. A major focus of this project is to understand the combination of conditions/events/pressures that led to this transition.
Images below show (left to right): an area of non-eroded vegetation-covered soil surrounded by an area stripped of soil be erosion; an active erosion front eating in to the body of soil; an example of preserved tephra (volcanic ash) layers [photos courtesy of Andy Dugmore].
Ongoing work
Fieldwork campaigns continue to run, under the direction of Prof. Andy Dougmore (University of Edinburgh) - with current focus on mapping tephra thickness, vegetation distributions and understanding the erosional history since human settlement approx. 1,200 yrs ago.
My role in the project is to create a model with which to explore the possible landscape responses to a range of forcing conditions, and to help explore hypotheses which may explain the recent geological record - specifically the apparently abrupt change in behaviour from 'stable' to 'eroding'. Model development and testing is currently underway. It is a cellular model, with rules defined locally at the individual cell level; it includes plant-to-plant interactions, sediment erosion/redistribution, and is forced by factors affecting plant survival and sediment mobility. Example model output images can be seen below, showing the progressive erosion of sediment and impact on surface vegetation. Here, a 3 m thick soil sits on a non-eroding surface, with colour representing surface height and plants shown as small dark hexagons - almost continuous on the un-eroded soil surface and patchy colonisation of the non-eroding surface.
Fieldwork campaigns continue to run, under the direction of Prof. Andy Dougmore (University of Edinburgh) - with current focus on mapping tephra thickness, vegetation distributions and understanding the erosional history since human settlement approx. 1,200 yrs ago.
My role in the project is to create a model with which to explore the possible landscape responses to a range of forcing conditions, and to help explore hypotheses which may explain the recent geological record - specifically the apparently abrupt change in behaviour from 'stable' to 'eroding'. Model development and testing is currently underway. It is a cellular model, with rules defined locally at the individual cell level; it includes plant-to-plant interactions, sediment erosion/redistribution, and is forced by factors affecting plant survival and sediment mobility. Example model output images can be seen below, showing the progressive erosion of sediment and impact on surface vegetation. Here, a 3 m thick soil sits on a non-eroding surface, with colour representing surface height and plants shown as small dark hexagons - almost continuous on the un-eroded soil surface and patchy colonisation of the non-eroding surface.
This work is being carried out in collaboration with:
Prof. Andrew Dougmore (Project Leader, University of Edinburgh)
Dr Nick Cutler (University of Cambridge)
Dr Martin Kirkbride (University of Dundee)
Dr Anthony Newton (University of Edinburgh)
Dr Richard Streeter (University of St. Andrews)
Prof. Andrew Dougmore (Project Leader, University of Edinburgh)
Dr Nick Cutler (University of Cambridge)
Dr Martin Kirkbride (University of Dundee)
Dr Anthony Newton (University of Edinburgh)
Dr Richard Streeter (University of St. Andrews)
3. Human-environment interactions: African Drylands
Background / justification
Drylands cover approximately 40% of the terrestrial surface and support approximately 35% of the Worlds population. Predicted changes in climate, atmospheric composition, land use and other human pressures, are likely to have a significant, and possibly detrimental effect on arid and semi-arid regions. Detrimental effects include enhanced sediment mobility and depletion of agricultural potential, deleterious hydrological and climatic effects on many scales, and reduction in global carbon sequestration. Quantitative prediction of landscape response is complicated by the highly coupled nature of these systems (coupling for example between climate, geomorphology, plants, fire, animals, and humans) and their non-linear responses to both external forcings and internal dynamics.
Previous work
This work builds on an already published highly simplified cellular automata model of plant-plant interactions, used to investigate the emergence of spatial patterning, and the properties of time series as the modelled plant population was driven to collapse (by environmental stress). Published here - summary figures from this paper are shown below - see paper for details:
Drylands cover approximately 40% of the terrestrial surface and support approximately 35% of the Worlds population. Predicted changes in climate, atmospheric composition, land use and other human pressures, are likely to have a significant, and possibly detrimental effect on arid and semi-arid regions. Detrimental effects include enhanced sediment mobility and depletion of agricultural potential, deleterious hydrological and climatic effects on many scales, and reduction in global carbon sequestration. Quantitative prediction of landscape response is complicated by the highly coupled nature of these systems (coupling for example between climate, geomorphology, plants, fire, animals, and humans) and their non-linear responses to both external forcings and internal dynamics.
Previous work
This work builds on an already published highly simplified cellular automata model of plant-plant interactions, used to investigate the emergence of spatial patterning, and the properties of time series as the modelled plant population was driven to collapse (by environmental stress). Published here - summary figures from this paper are shown below - see paper for details:
Key findings:
- A wide range of spatial patterns is observed in the model results, from highly (self-) organized structures to homogeneous effectively random distributions. Pattern formation emerges spontaneously, with resultant patches provide self-sustaining environments.
- Bistability must occur in this system and the bifurcation point is announced by a slow-down in post-perturbation recovery rate, driven by spatially localized interactions and observed in population time series as increases in both variance and autocorrelation.
- Repeated perturbations induce population collapse within the bistable region
- The prevalence of sparse non-patterned vegetation cover is an expected consequence of highly stressed and/or frequently perturbed systems.
- In areas where patterning persists, changes in transient patterns have potential to provide reliable indicators of the system state and trajectory.
Ongoing work
The approach in this project is to address the uncertainties described above through empirically-informed development of a highly spatially and temporally resolved process-based numerical model. The model will be used to explore the potential dependencies, resilience, manageability and predictability of the landscape system.
The approach in this project is to address the uncertainties described above through empirically-informed development of a highly spatially and temporally resolved process-based numerical model. The model will be used to explore the potential dependencies, resilience, manageability and predictability of the landscape system.
The image above was taken from a small plane approx. 1000 feet above eastern-central Botswana, near the town of Ghanzi. It shows the non-random (self-organised) distribution of shrubs which results from the scale-dependent effects of plant-to-plant interactions producing shorter-range facilitative and longer-range competitive pressures - a good example of a complex self-organising system, where emergent properties have significant and positive consequences for both the individuals and the community.
Collaborators on this project
Prof. Giles Wiggs (geomorphological processes)
Jerome Mayaud (plant-wind-sediment interactions)
Dr Christoph Resinger (numerical methods and moisture model)
Dr Dave Favis-Mortlock (sediment transport)
Dr Kendra McClaughlan (nutrient dynamics)
Prof. Sue Hartley (plant/herbivore ecology)
Dr Lizzie Jeffers (plant/herbivore ecology)
Collaborators on this project
Prof. Giles Wiggs (geomorphological processes)
Jerome Mayaud (plant-wind-sediment interactions)
Dr Christoph Resinger (numerical methods and moisture model)
Dr Dave Favis-Mortlock (sediment transport)
Dr Kendra McClaughlan (nutrient dynamics)
Prof. Sue Hartley (plant/herbivore ecology)
Dr Lizzie Jeffers (plant/herbivore ecology)